Future of the fed-isn’t what they say they will do the opposite of what they will do? Roy Cohn theory. Will a loaf of bread cost $100? Is it necessary for the fed to support 2 percent economic growth which has led to decades of inflation? Just a few questions. Worked for Ohio lmi 1985-2010, friend of Larry Less the late mark schaff.
Tom's "persuasion, not command" point is the part I keep coming back to. So much of the current Warsh anxiety leans on the Burns analogy — but Burns operated inside exactly the chair-deferential culture Tom describes from the Bernanke handoff, where the committee mostly fell in behind the chair. A more independent-minded FOMC, plus a predecessor still sitting at the table, is a structural brake Burns never had to reckon with. Did Tom read today's committee as a genuine constraint on a chair who wanted to push a direction the data didn't support — or more as friction a skilled chair eventually talks around?
Great stuff, but Please provide a transcript. It makes the presentation searchable and more accessabe to the audience. And it is not a lot of extra work:
Substack's built-in transcription — Substack now offers automatic transcription for podcast/audio posts. If he published the audio as a podcast episode rather than just embedding a YouTube video, a transcript would be generated automatically.
YouTube's auto-generated captions — If the video is on his YouTube channel, he could simply enable captions and publish the transcript from there with minimal editing.
Third-party tools like Otter.ai or Rev.com can transcribe a video quickly and cheaply, and the text can be pasted directly into the Substack post.
If Warsh returns to letting the balance sheet fall, would that tightening effect actually let him cut the rate of IOR to compensate? What about reinstituting required reserves that pay 0% like we had from 1913 to 2008?
Future of the fed-isn’t what they say they will do the opposite of what they will do? Roy Cohn theory. Will a loaf of bread cost $100? Is it necessary for the fed to support 2 percent economic growth which has led to decades of inflation? Just a few questions. Worked for Ohio lmi 1985-2010, friend of Larry Less the late mark schaff.
Tom's "persuasion, not command" point is the part I keep coming back to. So much of the current Warsh anxiety leans on the Burns analogy — but Burns operated inside exactly the chair-deferential culture Tom describes from the Bernanke handoff, where the committee mostly fell in behind the chair. A more independent-minded FOMC, plus a predecessor still sitting at the table, is a structural brake Burns never had to reckon with. Did Tom read today's committee as a genuine constraint on a chair who wanted to push a direction the data didn't support — or more as friction a skilled chair eventually talks around?
Great stuff, but Please provide a transcript. It makes the presentation searchable and more accessabe to the audience. And it is not a lot of extra work:
Substack's built-in transcription — Substack now offers automatic transcription for podcast/audio posts. If he published the audio as a podcast episode rather than just embedding a YouTube video, a transcript would be generated automatically.
YouTube's auto-generated captions — If the video is on his YouTube channel, he could simply enable captions and publish the transcript from there with minimal editing.
Third-party tools like Otter.ai or Rev.com can transcribe a video quickly and cheaply, and the text can be pasted directly into the Substack post.
If Warsh returns to letting the balance sheet fall, would that tightening effect actually let him cut the rate of IOR to compensate? What about reinstituting required reserves that pay 0% like we had from 1913 to 2008?
That's just an exise tax on banks. Leave taxatio to the Congress.